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Current Position - what should White play here?

Position 396

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 How should White play 51 here: Hitting is fun, but hitting and making another inner board point is twice as much fun, so it must be worth considering 6/1* 2/1: The problem with this play is that it makes the wrong point. You really want to make your 3 point forming a 6 prime. By playing 6/1* you have removed a builder to cover your 3 point. Also, any 3 by Black points Black in a really good position and sends another checker behind Blacks broken 6 prime. The next you consider starting to escape from behind Black’s prime and safety the blot on your 3 point with 23/18 3/2:  You want to make your 3 point, but by lifting the checker on it, it is harder to make. Black would have hit you with a 2 on your 3 point, but 2s are already good for Black as they can hit you on your 23 point. You want to start to escape from behind Black's prime by playing 23/18. You want to keep the blot on your 3 point, so what about playing 23/18 2/1*: Now Black has 16 rolls where they stay on the ...

Position 395

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 How should White play 63 here: In looking at this position you should look at how many good rolls you have and how many good rolls Black has after each candidate play. You start with looking at the hitting plays. Consider 7/1* 7/4: Hitting is good, but if Black just enters on the 3 point, will force you to hit loose. This play gives you two direct good numbers – 5’s or 3’s to cover the blot on your 1 point, but 5’s are duplicated as those of the numbers that you need to get off your 23 point anchor. 3’s are also good as a number to potentially make your 3 point. But you can do better if you hit 7/1* 8/5: Black has two good numbers, which are exactly the same as after 7/1* 7/4. But now you have five good numbers – 6’s, 5’s, 4’s, 3’s and 2’s to either cover the blot on your 1 point. And remember that your 5’s are duplicated. The problem really is those two good numbers that Black has. Consider the non-hitting play of 8/2 6/3: Now Black only has one good number, any 2 to ...

Position 394

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 How should White play 55 here: You are really glad that you entered from the bar. The trick now is to play 55 the best way to maximise your winning and examining chances. You could just make the safe play of bar/5: This move could end up creating a powerful position in the future, but for the next roll it gives your opponent the chance to consolidate their position. Therefore, it is too safe. Consider bar/15 9/4(2): You have improved your board strength, but Black does not feel under much pressure, particularly as you have left a blot that they can hit with any 3 as well as 66 and 44. Consider bar/20 8/3*(3): This puts a Black checker on the bar, and appears to be a move that puts Black under pressure. But if you look closer, Black does not enter with a 3, but can use a 3 to hit 8/5*. You have also made your home board points out of order, whereas you really want to meet them in order. It is good that you have put a Black checker on the bar, but you will probably have to...

Position 393

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 How should White play 43 here: After the roll you will be ahead in the race by 23 pips. You could just try to clear your rear most point and play 13/6: You will be hit by Black with 24 rolls as you are leaving a double shot. Even if you are not hit, you still have to get the checker on your 13 point to safety and then have to clear your 11 point. If you are going to take a risk, you want the reward to be more tangible. How about only leaving a single shot by playing 11/4: After this move you will only be hit with 15 rolls which is 9 rolls or 25% less of the time. While the actual number of rolls less, it would be good to start to clear the rear most point. What would it looks like if you left no shots by playing 5/2 5/1: The problem with this play, is that Black will probably give up their midpoint which will give them more builders to make the 5 point next turn, or they will make their 5 point this turn by rolling a 2. Your 5 point board is a real asset here, so the l...

Position 392

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 How should White play 21 here: White is a great chance to hit both checkers here by playing bar/24* 6/4*: This move does indeed win 4% more Gammons, but unfortunately wins 6% less games. The issue is that any 4 for Black will hit from the bar which is 11 rolls, and also 33 from the bar play bar/22(2) 12/9 4/1* will make Black a 64% favourite. That is a total of 12 rolls, or 36% of the time. You could also have trouble escaping your checker on the 24 point as you do not have much timing. Compared this to bar/24*/22: Now you will only be hit with 7 rolls from the bar – 33, 41, 43 and 31. That is 5 rolls fewer or 14% fewer times you will be hit. You will have a much easier time escaping, possibly picking up Black’s checker on your 13 point. If Black does not anchor with a 4 or 31, then you will have 3 builders aimed at both your 4 and 3 points. Sometimes it really is as simple as how many return shots from the bar you give your opponent.

Position 391

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 How should White play 62 here: You have 4 blots around the board, and you would like to tidy up as many as you can, so you consider 13/11 8/2: The issue with this play, is the spare on your 2 point can only go to your 1 point. This limits its range and usefulness. You would like to make your 3 point, so moving the spare to your 2 point is going too far. Making your 11 point is good, as it blocks 6’s and means that if Black runs one checker off their 20 point, you will have good 6’s to hit on your 5 point. You consider 24/18 8/6: This safeties 1 blot and duplicates 6’s to hit on both sides of the board. Unfortunately, Black can still hit you with 6’s, 4’s, 3’s and 1’s. This move leaves you too exposed. Consider 13/11 13/7: This makes the 11 point, which is great. Black can already use a lot of their 2’s and 3’s to make points on their site of the board, so there is some duplication here. But we do still leave 4 blots, and that is just too many in this situation. How about 24/18 13/...

Position 390

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 How should White play 21 here: You know that gaps are bad, so you make the obvious play of 6/4 5/4: This is the move that I expect a lot of players would make over the board, without the quiz factor of this being presented as a problem. This is the move that could easily be made if you are playing speed Gammon or not thinking about how your next roll plays. On your next roll, every 6 except 66 will leave a shot. That is 10 rolls or 28% of the time. You could just think of this as a bear in problem and consider whether your highest two points (in this case your 7 and 8 points) have an odd or even number of checkers on them. You want your two highest points to either have both an even number of checkers on them or both an odd number of checkers on them. Consider the correct 8/7 8/6: After this move, your two highest points both have an even number of checkers on them and no roll leaves a shot.