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Current Position - what should White play here?

Position 412

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 How should White play 22 here: After you enter with the first 2, you could play 7/5 7/3: This looks like the safest play, but sometimes the greatest risk is to take no risk at all. Black can escape with any 5, even 51 Black can play 23/18 3/2*. Also, you will not be happy if Black rolls 22, as you will end up on the bar against a 4 point board. The safe play is just too risky as it gives Black 12 good rolls. You consider switching points with bar/23 4/2*(2) 8/6: This play only gives Black 8 good rolls – 64, 54, 44 and 41. With 41, you will have a direct shot from the bar but you will also have another blot on your 8 point. The main point here is that if Black enters from the bar, unless you hit them, they will find it very easy to escape and be significantly ahead in the race. And Black owns a 4 cube. Consider bar/23 8/2*: Although Black can hit you with 11 rolls, Black will not be happy to roll 42 or 32 as this will put you on the bar but expose another blot in Black’s ...

Position 411

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 How should White play 11 here: You have two types of play with 11 here, first the put Black on the bar play of 5/2*/1: The idea here is, you are trying to close out Black and win more Gammons. This is a nice theory, but this play wins 4% less games and 3% less Gammons.  Also, as you will only have one of Black’s checkers on the bar, you will only win about 3% Gammons. The problem here is your 63, 62 and 61 play very awkwardly. If you leave a shot and are hit, you will win less games and less Gammons. Other rolls like 54 may make your 2 point, but your 4 point will still be open and Black could enter and escape, then get lucky and win the race. The best play is to just make a 6 prime with 7/4 5/4: Now you can use any awkward 6 to hit 8/2* and still keep your 6 prime. You do not care if your opponent hits you from the bar because they will use up a lot of timing, particularly if you stay on the bar. Then their board will collapse and you will frequently get more shots at ne...

Position 410

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 How should White play 43 here: You are ahead in the race and have fully escaped both your back checkers. Black has the stronger board so you would rather not be hit. This leads you to look at the non-hitting play of 11/7 6/3: This move still leaves 12 shots for Black, allows Black to anchor with other numbers, and does nothing to stop Black’s development. Note that this is the DMP play as it wins the most games. You do not have the option of doubling Black out here, so you will have to play this game out to the end. At some point you will have to clear your midpoint, so you consider the hit and clear now play of 13/10* 13/9:   Black will hit you with any entering 6 as well as 55 – that is 11 rolls or 31% of the time. Any entering 4 or 1 that does not hit, will allow Black to anchor, making your blitz harder to achieve. You want to make it as hard as possible for Black to anchor, so you consider the double hitting play of 13/10* 8/4*: You will be hit from the bar by Bl...

Position 409

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 How should White play 52 here: You are in a really bad way here, but you need to not panic, and make the move that will win the most. Years ago, Oswald Jacoby wrote “the mark of a good player is how he plays his bad rolls”. This is such a position. You could just play the safe move of 6/1 5/3: This does leave no blots, but your long-term prospects are bad. You have TMP (Two Many Points), and a semi dead checker on your 3 point. You have to take a risk to have any chance of winning. You consider only leaving 2 blots by playing 13/6: This minimises your risk, but if you are not hit, your prospects of improving your situation are not that good. They have improved but not by much. If you’re going to take a risk, consider 13/8 6/4: This leaves 3 blots, but if you are missed you should be able to improve your board. If you are hit, especially if Black only hits 1 blot, you will have a good chance of anchoring or improving your board. I find the key to these types of position...

Position 408

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How should White play 42 here: You are ahead in the race, with one of Black’s checkers on the bar and you have a 5 point board. Your goal is to make a 6 point board, so you consider 11/5: Now you have 3 builders aimed at your 4 point. Do you have enough time, or rolls to make your 4 point? You need to make your 4 point quickly, and you are running out of time to do so. This points you towards a slotting play, to quickly make your 4 point. Every 4, except 41 is good for Black here. 42 enters and hits bar/21 6/4*. All other 4s enter and escape into the outfield, hitting a White blot if possible. So, slotting your 4 point with 8/4 11/9 does not give Black good 4s, they already have good 4s. Consider 8/4 11/9: This is the correct move, as 41 is bad for Black (as Black cannot double hit) and 42 played bar/21* 6/4* (this is the correct move for Black) at least gives you a return direct shot from the bar. This move does duplicate 5s and 3s to cover the slotted 4 point and escape the b...

Position 407

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 How should White play 62 here: This is from a match between two very good players. The score has been removed as it was early in the match. A world-class player played 11/3: The good news about this play is that you are threatening to make a 5 prime. Unfortunately, it is harder to prime a single checker, as it is easy for a single checker to escape. Also, you would like to be behind in the race when you are priming (as you can keep your structure for longer), but here you are ahead in the race. The bad news is Black will hit you with any 6 as well as 51, and if they do not hit, they have many rolls that will make an inner board point or their Bar point. You consider the hitting play 24/16*: Although this puts you ahead in the race, and partially escapes a checker, you will be hit by Black with any 3, as well as 62, 61, 52, 51, 42, 41, 21, 22 and 11. That is 27 rolls, or 75% of the time. Note that 11 hits twice. This move is just too risky, so you consider 13/7 3/1*: This m...

Position 406

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 How should White play 22 here: I have had players tell me that sometimes the move is just obvious. Those players would play bar/23(2) 7/5*(2): This move creates a 5 point board, and gives you 6s and 5s to hit and escape your rear most checkers. This play also gives Black no return hits from the bar. The problem with this play is any 3 let’s Black anchor and make a 5 prime with 35, 34 and 31. The great American player Mary Hickey tells her students to “beware Captain Obvious”. In other words, do not just make the obvious play, even if it is correct you need to consider if there are any better alternatives. Consider not making the 5 point (which would be heresy in some circles) and hitting both checkers with bar/23(2) 7/5*/3*: Although this does not create a 5 point board, and gives Black a direct shot from the bar, it wins 2% more games and 6.5% more Gammons. You can get away with this move because Black has a blot on their 1 point, and if you are hit by Black you will have...