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Current Position - what should White play here?

Position 379

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 How should White play 63 here: You can play completely safe here, by playing 10/1: Some unknown wise person said “sometimes the greatest risk of all, is to take no risk”. This move may seem safe but by next roll Black will probably have covered the blot on their 2 point and it will be much more risky to leave your 20 point anchor. If you roll 33, 32, 31 or 11, you will damage your prime next roll. Consider 20/11: Black has no active builders above your blot on the 20 point. An active builder is a checker that can be used to hit or make a point without it giving up the point is on. Here if Black hits from the 8 or 7 points they will have to give up that point unless they roll 22 or 11. It is a good time to run because Black has the blot on their 2 point. However, this roll leaves three blots around the board, so that if things go wrong for you here as White, Black could end up putting all three of those checkers on the bar and winning more Gammons. It is good to leave Blacks ...

Position 378

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 How should White play 61 here: You are really glad that you rolled a hitting number here. First you consider hitting 14/8* and lifting 4/3: This looks safer, but is it? In his excellent book “Modern Backgammon” by Bill Robertie, Bill gives the advice that you actually need to count the shots rather than just assuming one move is safer than the other. Here Black will hit you from the bar with 62, 61, 53, 51, 44 and 41 – 11 rolls or 31% of the time. You will have one black checker on the bar. Consider 14/8* 14/13*: Black will also hit you with 11 rolls here, but they will have two checkers on the bar, with you having a 3 point board with a fourth point slotted and a direct cover. If Black misses you, you will find it much easier to get both checkers home with black having two checkers having to come in from the bar. You will also win more games and more Gammons after this move. You should be more inclined to make the big play when your opponent owns the cube. You canno...

Position 377

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 How should White play 63 here: You are clearly the favourite here, and even if you choose the worst option of the ones I will consider, you will still wins 64% of the time with 32% Gammons. But do not be satisfied with second-best, you want to maximise your wins and gammon wins. You have 3 more inner board points then black, so you are not too worried about the blots that you leave around the board. Consider 13/4: This gives you 12 checkers in the zone, and prepares to attack Black’s rearmost blot. You will happily hit loose, even if your opponent makes another inner board point. The issue with this play is that you have very little chance of remaking your midpoint, and have therefore given up or reduced your amount of outfield control. Consider making your 18 point anchor with 24/18 13/10: You do not need to lock up an anchor here, you would rather keep your blot spread out and welcome a blot hitting contest as your board is so much stronger than Blacks. Anchors are goo...

Position 376

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 How should White play 32 here:  This is the position sent to me by Greg Ash. Greg suggested that I use it in the positions of the week, and I agreed and put it in the queue. On Wednesday last week it went to the top of the queue, as I learnt that Greg passed away. He was the past president of the Australian New Zealand backgammon Federation, and gave generously of his time for the promotion and benefit of backgammon. So, in honour of Greg, this position has moved to the top of the queue. You will be missed Greg. White is in the race to get all his checkers off before Black does, so considers playing 3/off 2/off: In order to compare the alternatives, we have to have some common currency to measure how good each alternative is. I would count the number of crossovers for either side for each alternative. It may not be the best alternative, but it works and is easy. A crossover is moving from one quadrant of your board to another, or entering from the bar, or bearing off one ...

Position 375

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 How should White play 21 here: You consider going for an advanced anchor by playing 24/21: But you will be splitting when Black has 11 checkers in the zone. Black wants to stop you from making your 5 point, so would really like to attack and put you on the bar. As you really want to make your 5 point, you could just make it now with 7/5 6/5: Black will hit you with any 6 as well as 51 and 42, which is a total of 15 rolls or 42% of the time. It is okay to take a risk, but Blacks 6’s do not play that well at the moment so you are just diversifying Black’s good rolls. Consider 8/5: Now Black will hit you with any 4 as well as 31 and 22. That is only 14 rolls or 39% of the time. What is important here is that Black 4’s already play well. With 41 and 43 Black can already make their 5 point, with 42 and 54 Black can already make their 4 point and with 64 Black already can make their 2 point. So, you are very effectively duplicating Black’s 4’s. Blacks 31 and 22 can already make ...

Position 374

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How should White play 32 here: You were being hammered, and you have just entered from the bar with 32. Because Black has a 4 point board you consider making the anchor with bar/20: The problem with this play is that you will still be behind in the race with your Black on roll. You are only 5 pips behind in the race but this move gives Black the chance to tidy up their position. This is the move that plays to lose respectfully rather than the play that tries to win. If you want to win, you could consider going for the closeout by hitting bar/23 8/5*: The idea here is for Black to miss, then you roll a 3, or 62, 44, 22, 11 or 66. Without counting the exact number of shots, Black hits you from the bar with any 5 or 41, 31 and 61 – that is 17 rolls or 47% of the time. You want to put your opponent on the bar, and cost them the most amount of pips so consider bar/23 20/17*: Now you will only be hit by Black with indirects from the bar. You will be hit with 51, 53, 31 or   11 – th...

Position 373

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 How should White play 21 here: First a reminder that all these positions are played as New Zealand money games, meaning without Jacoby. If it helps just think of it as the first game in a 25 point match. When a giant was confronted with this position, he did not want Black to make a 5 prime so hit 24/21*: This play removes a slot, puts a Black checker on the bar in costs Black the most amount of pips. What is not to like? If Black rolls a 4, then you will have another checker behind Blacks 4 prime. To quote Kent Goulding “4 in a row is more than you think”. This is especially true, the more checkers you have behind your opponent’s 4 prime, the harder it is to escape them. If Black rolls a 3, then they will anchor and that will be the end of your blitz. Any 4 or any 3 is a total of 20 rolls, so 56% of the time you will not be happy. Consider the correct play of 13/11 4/3*: The way to think about this position it is in terms of gameplan. As you, White have made your 2 and ...

Position 372

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 How should White play 31 here: You have two choices here. The first one is to step to the edge of the prime with 23/22 11/8: You are way ahead in the race, and would like to escape your last checker and just come home safely. Stepping to the edge of Black’s prime, seems to give you a simple way to win the game – rolling 6 and bring that checker home. The problem with this play is that it diversifies Black’s numbers so that 6’s escape, while 5’s and 4’s hit you off the edge of the prime. If you do not roll a 6 immediately, you have some awkward numbers like 54, and you will be forced to play deep into your board. Then if Black rolls a 6, even if they have do not hit you, they will have control of the outfield. Contrast this to 6/3 4/3: Now you are playing a priming versus prime game. Black will need to roll three 6’s to escape all their checkers. You will need to roll a 1 and then a 6. So, you only need two numbers. You will have more timing here, meaning if you have to mov...