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Current Position - what should White play here?

Position 418

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How should White play 43 here: You consider the hitting play of 13/ 8/5*: “If in doubt, hit” is a good saying, but here you should have doubt. Black has the stronger board with 2 more inner board points then you. Black will hit you with any 5, as well as 41, 32 and 42. That is 17 rolls or 47% of the time. That is just too many hits. You would really like to make your 21 point anchor, so you consider the splitting play of 24/21 13/9: This move does duplicate Black’s 4s, but you have moved your back checker to a point that Black would like to make and created another blot on your 9 point. You now have 3 blots around the board and a weaker board than black. Next you consider the completely safe play of 13/6: This is completely safe, and leaves no blots for Black to hit, but it also does nothing to improve your position. You are prepared to take a moderate risk to improve your position. Consider 8/4 7/4: This move improves your board and starts to make it harder for Black to escape. ...

Position 417

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 How should White play 53 here: You are very relieved to have hit Black’s checker on their 9 point. But you need to slow down and make sure you make the best play. The obvious play here is 24/16*: This leaves your back checkers connected, so that if Black hits the blot on their 9 point, you will have return 5s and 6s to hit from the bar. While this is good, in order to win this game, you are going to need to build a strong board, and at the moment you only have 7 checkers in the zone. Your priority after hitting is to improve your board. You cannot directly improve your board this roll, but you need to bring another checker into the zone while Black is on the bar. Consider 21/16* 13/10: You will still have good 6s from the bar to hit back if you are hit on your 16 point, except if you roll 66. You have a much better chance of making your 7 or 5 points. This is actually the correct move. This move also has one minor advantage in that if Black rolls 22 from the bar, with the firs...

Position 416

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 How should White play 55 here: This was from a match between two very good players, where one of the players made the natural move of 18/3 7/2: This reduces your blot count to only one blot, and duplicates Black’s hitting and covering 2s. The problem with this play; is that even if Black misses you, it still will not be easy to get your remaining checkers to safety. Black’s inner board blot allows you to make a much bolder play, 18/8 13/8(2): This leaves 2 blots and allows Black to hit you with any 2 or any 3. But the big advantage is, it will be much easier to tidy up this position if you are hit. That advantage and the fact that Black has an inner board blot makes this the correct play. To show the importance of that inner board blot, let’s create a variant where blacks inner board blot is covered and now Black has a 4 point board: Now narrowly, the one blot variation is marginally better. However, this is so close that over the board I would still play 18/8 13/8(2), because...

Position 415

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 How should White play 61 here: Your position is terrible, but you have finally rolled a number that gives you the chance to turn the game around. You could make the relatively safe play of 12/11* 9/3: To quote a friend “that move just hurts my eyes”. Your 3 point has 2 extra checkers on it that can only be used to make the 2 or 1 points. Black will easily enter with 32 rolls or 89% of the time. This move creates 3 ugly stacks, and gives you an inflexible position. Consider 8/2* 3/2: This move has the advantage of making a new inner board point, and bringing the semi dead checker on your 3 point back to life. The problem with this move is that Black enters from the bar with 27 rolls or 75% of the time, hitting you with 51, 41, 11 and 54 – 7 rolls. Consider the double hitting play of 12/11* 3/2*: Black hits from the bar with any 2 and 11 – 12 rolls or 33% of the time. But with 2 checkers on the bar, and a 2 point board, Black will only enter both checkers less than 50% of ...

Position 414

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 How should White play 33 here: You have 11 checkers in the attack zone on your side of the board. You consider the blitzing play of 8/2*(2): The advantage of the blitzing play; is that if you succeed in closing black out, you will have a good chance of winning a gammon because Black’s checkers are so far from their home board. The problem with this play, is that if Black enters on the 4 point, you will be forced to attack, hitting loose if necessary. This may seem like a good thing, but if you have to do a loose hit, you could be sent back many pips. If Black anchors on the 1 point, then you are stripped and will not have much flexibility because you have TMP – Too Many Points. When you have TMP, your position is brittle, and you will be forced to leave blots with many of your rolls. The other blitzing play that you consider is 8/2* 7/4(2): The advantage of the blitzing play , is that if you succeed in closing black out, you will have a good chance of winning a gammon because...

Position 413

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 How should White play 61 here: I have heard the saying “if in doubt, hit” many times. It is a good saying, but what should cause you to doubt is never defined. Here the obvious play is just to play 22/15*: After the roll you will only be ahead by 3 pips. As Black will be on roll, effectively you are still behind in the race as the average roll is 8 pips. If you use Paul Magriel’s safe versus bold criteria, you will notice that Black has a stronger board then you have, which should point you to making a safer play. Board strength is the strongest indicator of a safe versus bold play, and here you have a weaker board than Black. Note that Black does not enter with 5s, but can hit 8/3* with a 5. You also give up your 22 point anchor. The 22 point anchor is a weak anchor, but when your opponent has a stronger board, any anchor is good. Consider playing 13/7 8/7: You will be behind in the race by 12 pips after the roll. When you are priming, you want to be behind in the race ...

Position 412

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 How should White play 22 here: After you enter with the first 2, you could play 7/5 7/3: This looks like the safest play, but sometimes the greatest risk is to take no risk at all. Black can escape with any 5, even 51 Black can play 23/18 3/2*. Also, you will not be happy if Black rolls 22, as you will end up on the bar against a 4 point board. The safe play is just too risky as it gives Black 12 good rolls. You consider switching points with bar/23 4/2*(2) 8/6: This play only gives Black 8 good rolls – 64, 54, 44 and 41. With 41, you will have a direct shot from the bar but you will also have another blot on your 8 point. The main point here is that if Black enters from the bar, unless you hit them, they will find it very easy to escape and be significantly ahead in the race. And Black owns a 4 cube. Consider bar/23 8/2*: Although Black can hit you with 11 rolls, Black will not be happy to roll 42 or 32 as this will put you on the bar but expose another blot in Black’s ...