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Current Position - what should White play here?

Position 427

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 How should White play 53 here: If you want to leave no blots, you could play 13/10 13/8: The issue with this play is that you have given up your outfield presence, making it so much harder for you to run your back checkers to safety. The 13 point is a good point to put fleeing checkers on. Losing control of the outfield will cause long-term problems. You would like to get an advanced anchor, so you consider that hit and split play of 24/21 6/1*: This does duplicate 1s to hit in two different places, but you will be hit somewhere with any 1 as well as 64, 44, 33 and 22. That is a total of 16 rolls or 44% of the time. That number is too high. Consider 8/3 6/3: This move retains your 13 point, so that in the future you will have a landing spot for your escaping back checkers. It gives you a much stronger board than Black, and if Black does not hit you, then you will have 4 builders for your 4 point and three builders for your 7 point. If Black does hit you, then you will have n...

Position 426

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 How should White play 54 here: After the roll you will be ahead in the race by 72 pips. I always encourage players to learn how to Pip count, as so many decisions are helped by knowing the pip count. Here just noticing that Black has 5 checkers back while you have zero checkers back should tell you that you are way ahead in the race. Because you are so far ahead in the race it is tempting just to play safe with 13/4: But you need to think about what will happen here. Black will enter and slowly improve their board. You want to clear your 13 point, and the best time to do that is before Black builds a board. That entitles us to make our risky play to achieve an advantage here. Also, the fact that Black is on the bar, means that you should be making a big play. The move made over the board, was the unstacking 13/8 13/9: Unfortunately, this creates a mini stack of 4 checkers on your 8 point. Even 13/4 is better than this move. It is good to unstack your 13 point, but this overd...

Position 425

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  How should White play 65 here: Your anchor offers you security, so it is understandable that you want to keep it and play 8/2 6/5: This gives you a 4 point board, and if you are missed and Black leaves their rear most checker on your 4 point, then you will have 3 builders ready to attack it next turn. Also, if you are missed, you may just make your 6 point. The problem with this play is that you are not considering your gameplan. After the roll you will be ahead in the race by 11 pips, meaning that you should be thinking of racing. This move risks being hit on your 6 point and losing your racing advantage. Eventually anchors must be broken, so you consider 20/15 8/2: You will be hit by 2s and 4s, but your 2s are duplicated to hit in two different places. Your board is stronger than your Black’s board and if only one of your checkers is hit, then you will enter on 27 rolls or 75% of the time. I always find myself getting in trouble when I do not do what the dice are tellin...

Position 424

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  How should White play 11 here: Black has 12 checkers in the attack zone, ready to make new points and put you on the bar. It is understandable that you would like the security of an anchor, so you consider 24/20: After the roll you will be behind in the race by 14 pips. Black will be threatening to escape on every roll an increase that race lead. If Black does run into the outfield, and is hit, then Black will enter with 32/36 rolls. For Black, the consequence of being hit in the outfield is just a minor inconvenience. You need to improve your board strength, so that if Black runs and is hit, there is more of a price to pay. Consider 8/7(2) 6/5(2): Now 64 and 62 for Black, no longer escape into the outfield. If Black does escape into the outfield, being hit will slow her down more because you now have a 3 point board rather than just a 2 point board. You are also threatening to make your slotted 8 point. Although Black can hit you, if Black hits you with any combination o...

Position 423

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  How should White play 41 here: Stick Rice always advises his students to work out what the DMP play is, then to factor in the Gammons won and Gammons lost to determine if another play is better. Here the obvious play, and the DMP play is to play 4/off 4/3: The XG rollout says that this move will win 100% of the time. There is no roll that will leave a shot this roll. But this move is wrong. Because you have 7 checkers left, the fewest rolls that you can have all your checkers off is 4 rolls. Consider the correct play of 4/off 1/off: This roll is correct because of several factors. Firstly, you leave only 6 checkers remaining, meaning that you can have all your checkers off in 3 rolls. That means you will win 11% more Gammons, and that is significant. Secondly, you will win a high number of games by making the more aggressive play. Usually when a player has 7 or more checkers all off, their opponent must hit a second checker to win. Because you now have 9 checkers off, you...

Position 422

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  How should White play 51 here: After you enter bar/24, you have two choices for how to play the 5. The first choice is 23/18: It is easy to understand why you would want to make this move. If you stay on your 23 point, and Black makes that point then they will have a 5 point board, whereas if Black makes their 7 point it will be easier for you to enter. The problem with that logic is you are in a bad way after either of those scenarios. You must look at what happens when Black does not point on you but merely hits loose. If Black hits you loose on Black’s 7 point, the only return shots from the bar that you will have will be indirect. That alone should tell you that you will have fewer return shots from the bar if you are on Black’s 7 point. If Black hits you on their 7 point you will hit them back with 61, 52 and 51 – 6 rolls or 17% of the time. Consider bar/24 13/8: Now if Black hits you loose on their 2 point, you will hit back with any 2 as well as 11. That’s 12 rolls or ...

Position 421

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How should White play 42 here: You would rather not leave a shot, so you consider 5/1 5/3: Although this does not leave a shot, it damages your board creating a spare on your 2 point that can never be used to make another point. You would rather keep your high points in your board, so that when you hit, Black will have to enter on low points and then must jump over your partial prime. Moving off your 5 point makes no sense here. If Black had a stripped position and a lack of timing, then this move might make sense, but here Black can keep their anchor on their 18 point for many rolls. Walter Trice once said, “if you are unsure what to do, then simply pick up your rear most checker and move it forward”. Because of this you consider 16/10: It is amazing how often Walter Trice’s statement is correct, but this is not one of those times. Even if Black misses you on the first roll, you are likely able to tidy up both blots this roll, so Black will probably have additional shots on at...

Position 420

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 How should White play 54 here: It is always disappointing to miss when you have a double shot at a blot. But there is nothing you can do about that; you missed so you need to focus on finding the best play. The safe play is 6/1 6/2: But this is just too safe. You need to hit a blot as you are so far behind in the race, and when you hit that blot you need a board that has no blots in it. This move changes your board from a 4 point board to a 3 point board with a blot. You could minimise the chances that your opponent will hit you by playing 18/13 18/14: But to win, you need to hit and to hit you really want to maximise contact. This move does the opposite and minimises contact. You need to be aware that Black’s board has 2 open points. That means if you are hit, with one checker you will enter on 20 numbers or 56% of the time. Consider 13/8 13/9: This move retains your 18 point, which is back far enough that it will take many rolls for Black to get their 2 checkers on their...