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Current Position - what should White play here?

Position 399

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 How should White play 53 here: After entering bar/22, you could try saving a 6 by playing 6/1: But you should reject this play as it weakens your board too much. You are unlikely to win the race here, so you must plan on hitting a black checker and then containing it. Giving up your 6 point means that even if you hit a shot, you might not be able to remake your 6 point and then it will be very difficult to contain Black’s checker. If you are going to play safe, the move you should make is bar/22 7/2: But this move only gives Black 3 bad rolls – 55 and 64. You will still have some indirect shots on some of Blacks other rolls, but playing safe only wins 15% of games. Consider bar/17: The bad news is you will be hit with 15 rolls, including 55 which was a bad roll for Black after bar/22 7/2. The good news is that 5 rolls that only left an indirect shot after bar/22 7/2, now give you a direct shot. Also note that 42 for Black only left an indirect shot after bar/22 7/2, now...

Position 398

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 How should White play 22 here: It is good not to weaken your board, so you consider 13/7 13/11: This is the best of the moves that give up your midpoint, as it slots your 7 point. I have heard good players advocate giving up your midpoint in these situations, to avoid the awkwardness of you rolling 61 next roll. While that number would be awkward, if you kept your midpoint, then Black’s 61 and 11 force Black to break their 5 prime. Black rolling 62 would force Black to play 13/11 13/7, enabling you to hit with 61 next roll. It is worthwhile keeping your midpoint, so you consider 6/2 5/1: The idea is that you will be able to rebuild your board in the future, but you have reduced your board to a 4 point board with 2 blots. You can do better than this by playing 5/1(2): After this move you still have a 5 point board but with only 1 blot. It will be easier to make a 6 point board after this move, and you have retained your midpoint. This is the correct move.   ...

Position 397

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 How should White play 11 here: I want to remind readers that all positions are New Zealand money games, meaning that the Jacoby rule is not used. This means that you can both win or lose a gammon with the cube in the centre. It is always nice to make your 5 point, so your first two 1s should be played 6/5(2). Then you consider playing 7/5: The nice thing about this move is that you duplicate 5’s for Black to hit and cover the blot on their 3 point. However, you will be hit with 2 extra rolls, when                                there is a safer alternative available. Consider 8/5 6/5: This move duplicates 4s to hit on both sides of the board. But now Black will hit you with 2 fewer rolls then after 6/5(2) 7/5. The only asset you have acquired is your 5 point. If both 5s and 4s are useful to Black on the other side of the board,...

Position 396

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 How should White play 51 here: Hitting is fun, but hitting and making another inner board point is twice as much fun, so it must be worth considering 6/1* 2/1: The problem with this play is that it makes the wrong point. You really want to make your 3 point forming a 6 prime. By playing 6/1* you have removed a builder to cover your 3 point. Also, any 3 by Black points Black in a really good position and sends another checker behind Blacks broken 6 prime. The next you consider starting to escape from behind Black’s prime and safety the blot on your 3 point with 23/18 3/2:  You want to make your 3 point, but by lifting the checker on it, it is harder to make. Black would have hit you with a 2 on your 3 point, but 2s are already good for Black as they can hit you on your 23 point. You want to start to escape from behind Black's prime by playing 23/18. You want to keep the blot on your 3 point, so what about playing 23/18 2/1*: Now Black has 16 rolls where they stay on the ...

Position 395

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 How should White play 63 here: In looking at this position you should look at how many good rolls you have and how many good rolls Black has after each candidate play. You start with looking at the hitting plays. Consider 7/1* 7/4: Hitting is good, but if Black just enters on the 3 point, will force you to hit loose. This play gives you two direct good numbers – 5’s or 3’s to cover the blot on your 1 point, but 5’s are duplicated as those of the numbers that you need to get off your 23 point anchor. 3’s are also good as a number to potentially make your 3 point. But you can do better if you hit 7/1* 8/5: Black has two good numbers, which are exactly the same as after 7/1* 7/4. But now you have five good numbers – 6’s, 5’s, 4’s, 3’s and 2’s to either cover the blot on your 1 point. And remember that your 5’s are duplicated. The problem really is those two good numbers that Black has. Consider the non-hitting play of 8/2 6/3: Now Black only has one good number, any 2 to ...

Position 394

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 How should White play 55 here: You are really glad that you entered from the bar. The trick now is to play 55 the best way to maximise your winning and examining chances. You could just make the safe play of bar/5: This move could end up creating a powerful position in the future, but for the next roll it gives your opponent the chance to consolidate their position. Therefore, it is too safe. Consider bar/15 9/4(2): You have improved your board strength, but Black does not feel under much pressure, particularly as you have left a blot that they can hit with any 3 as well as 66 and 44. Consider bar/20 8/3*(3): This puts a Black checker on the bar, and appears to be a move that puts Black under pressure. But if you look closer, Black does not enter with a 3, but can use a 3 to hit 8/5*. You have also made your home board points out of order, whereas you really want to meet them in order. It is good that you have put a Black checker on the bar, but you will probably have to...

Position 393

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 How should White play 43 here: After the roll you will be ahead in the race by 23 pips. You could just try to clear your rear most point and play 13/6: You will be hit by Black with 24 rolls as you are leaving a double shot. Even if you are not hit, you still have to get the checker on your 13 point to safety and then have to clear your 11 point. If you are going to take a risk, you want the reward to be more tangible. How about only leaving a single shot by playing 11/4: After this move you will only be hit with 15 rolls which is 9 rolls or 25% less of the time. While the actual number of rolls less, it would be good to start to clear the rear most point. What would it looks like if you left no shots by playing 5/2 5/1: The problem with this play, is that Black will probably give up their midpoint which will give them more builders to make the 5 point next turn, or they will make their 5 point this turn by rolling a 2. Your 5 point board is a real asset here, so the l...