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Current Position - what should White play here?

Position 438

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 How should White play 65 here: Whatever you do, you must leave a blot and give black a shot, so you consider 13/2: The advantage of this play is that you only leave one blot. But that is the only advantage. You will only be hit with 11 rolls here or 31% of the time. The disadvantage of this play is that you might not be able to cover the blot you have created on your 2 point. Consider 13/7 6/1*: Now you have left 2 blots, and Black has more ways to hit you. Black will hit you with any 1 as well as 52, 42, 32, 22 and 43. That is 20 rolls or 56% of the time. That is 9 more rolls or 25% more hitting numbers than if you had just played 13/2. So why is this the correct play? First Black may roll 66 and stay on the bar. Also, Black may enter without hitting, in which case, their rear most checker is further forward in your home board, so now you can play your checkers safely behind their rear most checker. Although you will be hit with 9 more rolls than 13/2, the follow-up is easi...

Position 437

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 How should White play 41 here: You cannot split 24/20, as that is too dangerous. You consider leaving no blots by playing 10/5: The problem with this play is you have not made it hard for Black to do anything. You are preparing to make new points or attack next roll – if you get the chance. When I consider a play, I ask myself, “what am I hoping my opponent will roll if I make this play?” Here I cannot easily see a bad roll for Black. You can add another blocking point by playing 13/9 10/9: Now Black can only hit you with 66, 33 or 65. 66 and 33 are good rolls for Black whether Black hits you or not. 65 is duplicated because it makes Black’s 18 point as well as hitting you. Again, the problem is that you have not taken the initiative away from Black, and they will have many good options. Consider 6/2*/1*: You might have rejected this double hitting move because Black has the stronger board than you do. But remember Black only has one more inner board point than you, and yo...

Position 436

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 How should White play 21 here: You should play 13/11* hitting, if Black escapes, you will be in serious trouble. You consider just splitting 24/23, with the 1: This gives you good chances of anchoring if any of your 5 blots are hit. Chess players have a saying “don’t push wood.” It comes from the days when chess pieces were made of wood and refers to when you just don’t know what to do, you just pick up a piece and put it down when it looks okay. “Don’t push wood” encourages you to think about the move rather than being unfocused. Here you are behind in the race even after hitting. You want to quickly build your board and/or a prime. You will need to do this quickly, and as you are behind in the race priming seems like a good game plan. When you are priming, you will often slot to extend your prime. Consider 13/11* 6/5: Being hit now is not so bad, as you are already 20 pips behind the race after the roll. Being hit will give you the chance to anchor. Being missed is bet...

Position 435

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 How should White play 44 here: After the roll you will be ahead in the race by 16 pips, so you consider the safe play of 10/6 13/9(3): The good news is that this move is safe for Black’s next roll. The bad news is, Black’s board is still stronger than yours, you have lost control of the outfield by giving up your 13 point and you are still stacked on your 6 point. You will need your 13 point to make it easier for you to escape your rear most checkers. Without it they will not reach safety until they get to your 9 point. You consider 8/4(3) 10/6: You have kept your 13 point with a spare checker on it, and now your board strength is equal to Black’s. The one downside is that your 6 point is still stacked. Both this move and the previous one have left no shots. While that would seem to be good, it can be worth leaving a shot to gain a significant advantage. Consider 8/4(2) 6/2(2): You have retained your 13 point; your board is now stronger than Black’s and you have unstacked ...

Position 434

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 How should White play 44 here: It looks good to cover the blot on your 1 point, and there are many ways to do this. The first move you look at is 13/1 13/9: After this move, if Black anchors on either your 3 or 5 point, you will be playing a prime versus prime game. You will be at a disadvantage as you have already made your 1 point, therefore you will have fewer checkers to build a prime in front of Black’s anchor on your 3 point. You have also done nothing about escaping your rear most checker. Consider escaping your rear most checker now with 9/1 24/16: Black will still have the same number of anchoring rolls, as well as hitting you from the bar with 54, 43, 42 and 22 – 7 rolls or 19% of the time. You will still have to get the checker on your 16 point to safety next roll, which you may or may not be able to do. You could put another Black checker on the bar by playing 9/1 11/3*: Now you will be hit by any 3 and 21 which is 11 rolls from the bar. 55 is also a great ro...

Position 433

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How should White play 43 here: You had many good rolls here, particularly any 5 or any number that added up to 5. But that was not what you rolled. You consider the aggressive play of 8/1*: This would be a great play, if you could guarantee that Black would roll one of the 16 rolls that stay on the bar. Unfortunately, Black will hit you with any 1 as well as 62 and 22. That is 14 rolls or 39% of the time. When I evaluate the strength of the position, I look at who has the stronger board, stronger prime or more advanced anchor. Here the board strengths are equal, and both boards are very strong. Being hit could be bad. You may not be able to cover the blot on your 1 point next roll, particularly as you have duplicated your own 5s to safety your blot on your 18 point. Consider just running that blot 18/11: Now you will be hit with any 2 as well as 64, 61 and 11 – which is 16 rolls or 44% of the time. This is too high a risk. You consider the prepare to attack next roll move of 8/4 6/3: T...

Position 432

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 How should White play 51 here: In Backgammon you find yourself faced with many choices, but only one of them will make you the favourite. First you consider the distraction play of 21/16 9/8: This move has advantages. It reduces you to only having 3 blots and distracts Black from making new inner board points. If Black rolls a 1, do they make the point or hit your checker on their 9 point? This type of move is a distraction play. If Black does not hit you, whether by choice or rolling a missing number, you may be able to escape a checker. But Black could hit you with any 1, 2, 4 or 6 – which is 32 rolls or 89% of the time. Another play you consider is 13/8 9/8: This leaves your checker on your 21 point, in the hope that you may be able to make your 21 point anchor or be able to escape that checker in the future. This does duplicate 4s for Black to hit you on both their 4 and 2 points. Duplication is good, but this move is about simply surviving, rather than ending up in an...