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Current Position - what should White play here?

Position 466

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 How should White play 62 here: The bad news here is that you are behind in the race by 21 pips before the roll. The good news is that Black has a weak board and will be forced to break an anchor with any roll except 11. This means that you want to keep contact and improve our board. Consider 7/1 5/3: This move keeps contact and makes it so that Black cannot hit you. But is it so bad to be hit? No, as you will enter with 32 rolls and only stay on the bar with 22, 11 and 21. Being hit could be an advantage as you will probably enter and be able to pick up any checkers that have got past your rear most anchor. What is good about this move, is that you have started to improve your board by slotting points that you want. Consider 14/8 7/5: You are not worried if Black hits your checker on the 8 point, so you should just slot your 8 point. Unfortunately, 7/5 just creates a stack on your 5 point rather than starting a new inner board point. Consider the best move of 14/8 5/...

465

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 How should White play 65 here: You know that inner board points are good, so you consider 7/1 6/1: While it is true that inner board points are good, you would rather make your points in front of Black’s anchor, rather than behind it. This move would not be so bad if Black were ahead in the race and would be forced to leave their anchor – then you could attack the remaining blot. Unfortunately, you are ahead in the race so you should find another move. Consider 22/11: Although this move does duplicate 2s, there is more to this than duplication. Yes, Black does want to make the 4 point with any 2 but there are many rolls that cover and hit a blot. Although you really want to run when you are ahead in the race, this move gives Black too many good rolls. Consider 22/16 7/2: This move puts a blot into your inner board. If you end up hitting a Black checker, if this blot is not covered it could cause you problems as Black will have returned shots from the bar. Rather than cre...

Position 464

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 How should White play 65 here: After the roll you will be ahead in the race by 19 pips, so you consider the safe play of 10/4 9/4: This move just creates TMP (Too Many Points), plus your position is inflexible. That means that you will have very little choice about how to move your future rolls. You have also done nothing about escaping your rear most checkers or stopping Black from extending their prime. Consider 23/17 10/5: You have split to Black’s 8 point, the point he would most like to make. This move just makes it easier for him to make it because he can hit you loose on his 8 point, then if you do not return hit, he has slotted the point you most want to make. The other problem with this play is that you want to leave your blots in front of stripped intermediate points, and Black’s midpoint has 3 checkers on it so that it is not stripped. Consider 23/17 22/17: You have blots on your 22, 10 and 9 points. But all the checkers aiming at these blots, are from points th...

Position 463

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 How should White play 44 here: After the roll you will be ahead in the race by 19 pips. You first consider playing 13/9(4): This gives you 13 checkers in the attack zone and seems to block Black’s checkers on your 3 point. This seems good, but it also gives up control of the outfield. This means; that Black can spread their checkers out in the outfield and make it hard for you to escape your rear-most checker. If Black rolls a 4, they can hit you or make their 18 point. They can also make their 18 point with any 5. Once they have their 18 point, you will not be out to prime or block them, you will only be able to attack their single remaining checker. Consider 13/9(2) 24/20 6/2*: This is the bit of everything move. You advance your rear most checker ready to escape, you make your 9 point and you attack an inner board checker. Although this seems like it is achieving a lot, it is trying to do too much. You can be hit with any entering 4, 3 or 1. You can also be double hit her...

Position 462

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 How should White play 63 here: When you have only one checker remaining in your opponent’s home board, you are always looking for a chance to run that checker to safety. Here you could play 23/14: This only let’s Black hits you with 63, which is 2 rolls or 5.6% of the time. Even if Black were to roll 63 and hit you, they have a weak board and a blot on the 1 point. Any entering 3 or 2 would let you return hit from the bar. This is the move that wins the most games, and it would be correct at DMP where you are not interested in winning or losing Gammons. But you should be interested in winning Gammons here , so consider 14/8 11/8: This move wins 4.5% more Gammons than 23/14. Black will have many tricky choices about how to play rolls here. They need to cover their 1 point, and when they do, they will not be likely to prime you. They will be forced to attempt a blitz, hoping that you cannot hit them, and at every roll you will be threatening to escape. At the same time, they mus...

Position 461

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 How should White play 63 here: You can escape your rear most checker by playing 22/13: But you will still be behind in the race. You are decreasing your contact when you should be keeping it at the maximum. Consider 13/4: This brings another checker into the zone to attack Black’s rear most checkers. The problem with this play is that you will only have 8 checkers in the zone and you need more to be able to launch a successful attack. Also, Black would like to escape into the outfield as they are ahead in the race. This move does nothing to make it awkward for Black to move into the outfield. Consider 13/7 13/10: This attempts to create a prime, but let’s Black hit you from the bar with 53, 52, 51, 43 and 61. That is 10 rolls or 28% of the time. Consider 13/10 22/16: This move puts another checker into your outfield, meaning that if Black moves out into your outfield, they will be coming into a double shot. It also gives you more chances to make your 9, 8 or 7 points. As...

Position 460

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 How should White play 53 here: You first wonder if just making your 5 point is correct here. Consider 10/5 8/5: It is often said “if in doubt make your 5 point”. But here you should have a lot of doubt. You are trying to prime a single black checker and that checker is at the edge of your 4 prime. With any 6 or 5 Black can jump your 4 prime and escape. You do not want to get into a prime versus prime battle where Black has only one checker back but you have 3 checkers back, as that is not a winning strategy. If you want to go ahead in the race you can hit 23/15*: Although this sends black back the most pips, Black can hit you from the bar with 55, 33, 11, 62, 53, 52, 51, 32, 31 and 21 – 17 rolls or 47% of the time. This is way too many return shots for Black. Consider 8/3* 6/3: Now you are only hit from the bar with one roll 55. Rounded up that is 3% of the time, a difference of 44% of the time you will be hit. Getting ahead in the race would be nice, but you are sacrificing...