Position 385
How should White play 51 here:
After the roll you will be ahead in the race by 22 pips, so you consider the safe play of 6/1 3/2:
Although this is safe for the next roll, as it leaves no blots
that Black can hit, this is not very safe long-term. You will be still stacked
on your 6 point and have no spares on any other point. You will be inflexible
and brittle.
It is always good to make your 5 point, so you consider 10/5 6/5:
The problem with this play, is the 13 rolls that hit the blot on
your 10 point. If Black hits you, the fact that you have a blot on your 3
point, should make you less willing to hit in your inner board as you enter
from the bar. You do not want to put your racing lead in jeopardy.
You can cover the blot on your 3 point and give yourself some flexibility by playing 8/7 8/3:
Now your board is stronger, and you have a spare on your 7 point,
but in order to achieve those pluses you have had to give up your 8 point. Your
8 point was useful for blocking Black and making it harder for them to leave
their 21 point anchor.
This move does not do anything about the stack on your 6 point, or
making your 5 point.
Consider 6/5 6/1:
Your main two goals here are to unstack your 6 point and to make
your 5 point. Why is the 5 point so important? Gaps immediately in front of
anchors are very dangerous, so you want to make them if you can, even if it
involves a small risk.
If you are not hit, you have a very good chance of making your 5
point.
If your opponent does hits you, unless they have rolled 11, they
will not be also making a point elsewhere on the board. And even if they hit
you, they will still have to get over your broken 4 prime.
This is the correct move.
If we remove the blot from 3 point and put it back on a 7 point, we give ourselves a much more flexible position. Does this alter the solution?
Now making our 5 point with 10/5 6/5 becomes a lot closer as we can hit loose from the bar if we are hit, but your need to unstack our 6 point is still the most important consideration.
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