Position 395

 How should White play 63 here:

In looking at this position you should look at how many good rolls you have and how many good rolls Black has after each candidate play.

You start with looking at the hitting plays. Consider 7/1* 7/4:

Hitting is good, but if Black just enters on the 3 point, will force you to hit loose.

This play gives you two direct good numbers – 5’s or 3’s to cover the blot on your 1 point, but 5’s are duplicated as those of the numbers that you need to get off your 23 point anchor. 3’s are also good as a number to potentially make your 3 point.

But you can do better if you hit 7/1* 8/5:

Black has two good numbers, which are exactly the same as after 7/1* 7/4.

But now you have five good numbers – 6’s, 5’s, 4’s, 3’s and 2’s to either cover the blot on your 1 point. And remember that your 5’s are duplicated.

The problem really is those two good numbers that Black has.

Consider the non-hitting play of 8/2 6/3:

Now Black only has one good number, any 2 to hit and be able to see daylight.

Now you have six good numbers that either escape a back checker, cover the blot on your 3 point or attack on your 1 point.

The other feature of this position, is that there are two ways to escape from behind a prime. Roll the number that lets you escape or Black’s prime collapses because they run out of timing. In order for Black to run out of timing here, you need to avoid putting them on the bar. Then hope Black rolls 55, 44 or a series of large rolls.

I find these types of moves hard, because hitting seems so proactive and so much backgammon advice advises you to “if in doubt hit”. But just as important as being able to hit, is knowing when to refrain from hitting.