Position 396

 How should White play 51 here:

Hitting is fun, but hitting and making another inner board point is twice as much fun, so it must be worth considering 6/1* 2/1:

The problem with this play is that it makes the wrong point. You really want to make your 3 point forming a 6 prime. By playing 6/1* you have removed a builder to cover your 3 point.

Also, any 3 by Black points Black in a really good position and sends another checker behind Blacks broken 6 prime.

The next you consider starting to escape from behind Black’s prime and safety the blot on your 3 point with 23/18 3/2: 

You want to make your 3 point, but by lifting the checker on it, it is harder to make. Black would have hit you with a 2 on your 3 point, but 2s are already good for Black as they can hit you on your 23 point.

You want to start to escape from behind Black's prime by playing 23/18. You want to keep the blot on your 3 point, so what about playing 23/18 2/1*:

Now Black has 16 rolls where they stay on the bar. Then you will have 6’s, 4’s, 3’s and 2’s to cover at least one of your inner board blots. You will also have 5s to anchor on your 18 point.

If Black does hit you on your 1 point, then you roll 32, 31 or 11 from the bar, you will enter and make your 3 point, giving you a 6 prime.

I always remember Phil Simborg saying “make the move your opponent least wants to see you make”. Here that move is 23/18 2/1*.