Position 399

 How should White play 53 here:

After entering bar/22, you could try saving a 6 by playing 6/1:

But you should reject this play as it weakens your board too much. You are unlikely to win the race here, so you must plan on hitting a black checker and then containing it. Giving up your 6 point means that even if you hit a shot, you might not be able to remake your 6 point and then it will be very difficult to contain Black’s checker.

If you are going to play safe, the move you should make is bar/22 7/2:

But this move only gives Black 3 bad rolls – 55 and 64. You will still have some indirect shots on some of Blacks other rolls, but playing safe only wins 15% of games.

Consider bar/17:

The bad news is you will be hit with 15 rolls, including 55 which was a bad roll for Black after bar/22 7/2. The good news is that 5 rolls that only left an indirect shot after bar/22 7/2, now give you a direct shot. Also note that 42 for Black only left an indirect shot after bar/22 7/2, now leaves a direct shot for you.

This move lets you win 19% of the time which is 4% more than bar/22 7/2. That may not seem like a lot, but if you constantly make moves that a 4% better, you will win rate will improve.

The first step in making moves like this, is to actually consider the move. It is very easy to get caught up with the excitement of the game and make the obvious move. Sometimes the obvious move will be correct, but it is always good to think about the alternatives.