Position 411

 How should White play 11 here:

You have two types of play with 11 here, first the put Black on the bar play of 5/2*/1:

The idea here is, you are trying to close out Black and win more Gammons. This is a nice theory, but this play wins 4% less games and 3% less Gammons. Also, as you will only have one of Black’s checkers on the bar, you will only win about 3% Gammons.

The problem here is your 63, 62 and 61 play very awkwardly. If you leave a shot and are hit, you will win less games and less Gammons. Other rolls like 54 may make your 2 point, but your 4 point will still be open and Black could enter and escape, then get lucky and win the race.

The best play is to just make a 6 prime with 7/4 5/4:

Now you can use any awkward 6 to hit 8/2* and still keep your 6 prime. You do not care if your opponent hits you from the bar because they will use up a lot of timing, particularly if you stay on the bar. Then their board will collapse and you will frequently get more shots at new blots.

This is the correct play.

 

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Position 415

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 How should White play 61 here: Your position is terrible, but you have finally rolled a number that gives you the chance to turn the game around. You could make the relatively safe play of 12/11* 9/3: To quote a friend “that move just hurts my eyes”. Your 3 point has 2 extra checkers on it that can only be used to make the 2 or 1 points. Black will easily enter with 32 rolls or 89% of the time. This move creates 3 ugly stacks, and gives you an inflexible position. Consider 8/2* 3/2: This move has the advantage of making a new inner board point, and bringing the semi dead checker on your 3 point back to life. The problem with this move is that Black enters from the bar with 27 rolls or 75% of the time, hitting you with 51, 41, 11 and 54 – 7 rolls. Consider the double hitting play of 12/11* 3/2*: Black hits from the bar with any 2 and 11 – 12 rolls or 33% of the time. But with 2 checkers on the bar, and a 2 point board, Black will only enter both checkers less than 50% of ...
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