Position 412

 How should White play 22 here:

After you enter with the first 2, you could play 7/5 7/3:

This looks like the safest play, but sometimes the greatest risk is to take no risk at all.

Black can escape with any 5, even 51 Black can play 23/18 3/2*. Also, you will not be happy if Black rolls 22, as you will end up on the bar against a 4 point board.

The safe play is just too risky as it gives Black 12 good rolls.

You consider switching points with bar/23 4/2*(2) 8/6:

This play only gives Black 8 good rolls – 64, 54, 44 and 41. With 41, you will have a direct shot from the bar but you will also have another blot on your 8 point.

The main point here is that if Black enters from the bar, unless you hit them, they will find it very easy to escape and be significantly ahead in the race. And Black owns a 4 cube.

Consider bar/23 8/2*:

Although Black can hit you with 11 rolls, Black will not be happy to roll 42 or 32 as this will put you on the bar but expose another blot in Black’s home board.

Black will still be behind a 5 prime, even if they are at the edge of it. Their board will be very fragile and should produce many more blots should they not be able to roll a 6 immediately.

Keeping a 5 prime is very important here and this is the correct move.