Position 413

 How should White play 61 here:

I have heard the saying “if in doubt, hit” many times. It is a good saying, but what should cause you to doubt is never defined.

Here the obvious play is just to play 22/15*:

After the roll you will only be ahead by 3 pips. As Black will be on roll, effectively you are still behind in the race as the average roll is 8 pips.

If you use Paul Magriel’s safe versus bold criteria, you will notice that Black has a stronger board then you have, which should point you to making a safer play. Board strength is the strongest indicator of a safe versus bold play, and here you have a weaker board than Black.

Note that Black does not enter with 5s, but can hit 8/3* with a 5.

You also give up your 22 point anchor. The 22 point anchor is a weak anchor, but when your opponent has a stronger board, any anchor is good.

Consider playing 13/7 8/7:

You will be behind in the race by 12 pips after the roll. When you are priming, you want to be behind in the race as it means that your opponent will crash their board sooner than you.

You will have the 9 point slotted, and the builder on your 9 point can be used to make your 4 or 3 points or attack their if Black advances there rear most checker.

It looks instinctive to hit 22/15*, but sometimes the obvious play is not the correct one.





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Position 411

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