Position 418

How should White play 43 here:

You consider the hitting play of 13/ 8/5*:

“If in doubt, hit” is a good saying, but here you should have doubt. Black has the stronger board with 2 more inner board points then you. Black will hit you with any 5, as well as 41, 32 and 42. That is 17 rolls or 47% of the time. That is just too many hits.

You would really like to make your 21 point anchor, so you consider the splitting play of 24/21 13/9:

This move does duplicate Black’s 4s, but you have moved your back checker to a point that Black would like to make and created another blot on your 9 point. You now have 3 blots around the board and a weaker board than black.

Next you consider the completely safe play of 13/6:

This is completely safe, and leaves no blots for Black to hit, but it also does nothing to improve your position. You are prepared to take a moderate risk to improve your position.

Consider 8/4 7/4:

This move improves your board and starts to make it harder for Black to escape.

It does leave one blot, but if that blot is missed, it is another builder for your 5 point and a slot for your 8 point – which you would like to make. If you do manage to prime Black, you can easily escape his priming structure by rolling a 6 as they do not have their bar point.

For a long time, I have believed that if I cannot do anything else, then just making another inner board point will pay off in the long term. This is a perfect example of that principle.

 

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Position 415

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