Position 419

 How should White play 62 here: 

You have the stronger board, so you consider the boldest play of 13/7 6/2*:

Black will hit you from the bar with 44, 22, 64, 63, 54, 52, 43, 42, 41 and 31 – 18 rolls or 50% of the time. You will also be leaving 4 blots around the board. This move is just too big.

You consider the completely safe play of 13/7 9/7:

The issue with this play is that Black has complete freedom to do whatever they want to do. They can make inner board points, which they should easily be able to do as they have spare builders on their 6, 7 and 8 points. They can escape their back checker with any 6 or 5. Note how well diversified their rolls are. All this move does is gives Black the initiative.

You will be ahead in the race by 15 pips after the roll, so you consider 23/21 9/3:

This move does safety the blot on your 9 point, but now you have a blot on Blacks 4 point, which they would very much like to make. They have spares on their 8, 7 and 6 points, so they can hit or make points without giving up any of those points. They also would not hesitate to hit loose, and you have an inner board blot which could be hit in an exchange of hits.

This move is just too risky.

You would like to take away from Black, so you consider the hitting play of 13/11*/5:

This move also slots your 5 point, which you would like to make. However, you will be hit with 55, 65, 63, 54, 53, 52, 51, 41, 31 and 21 – 19 rolls or 53% of the time. While it is good to take the initiative away from Black, leaving 19 hitting rolls for Black is too many.

Consider 13/11* 9/3:

This move also takes away Black’s initiative. You will be hit with 33, 63, 53, 43, 32, 31 and 21 – 13 rolls or 36% of the time. Being hit 36% of the time is a lot, but it is also a lot less than being hit 53% of the time.

You have taken the initiative away from Black and found the best move in a very difficult position.





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Position 415

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 How should White play 61 here: Your position is terrible, but you have finally rolled a number that gives you the chance to turn the game around. You could make the relatively safe play of 12/11* 9/3: To quote a friend “that move just hurts my eyes”. Your 3 point has 2 extra checkers on it that can only be used to make the 2 or 1 points. Black will easily enter with 32 rolls or 89% of the time. This move creates 3 ugly stacks, and gives you an inflexible position. Consider 8/2* 3/2: This move has the advantage of making a new inner board point, and bringing the semi dead checker on your 3 point back to life. The problem with this move is that Black enters from the bar with 27 rolls or 75% of the time, hitting you with 51, 41, 11 and 54 – 7 rolls. Consider the double hitting play of 12/11* 3/2*: Black hits from the bar with any 2 and 11 – 12 rolls or 33% of the time. But with 2 checkers on the bar, and a 2 point board, Black will only enter both checkers less than 50% of ...
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Position 420

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