Position 421

How should White play 42 here:

You would rather not leave a shot, so you consider 5/1 5/3:

Although this does not leave a shot, it damages your board creating a spare on your 2 point that can never be used to make another point.

You would rather keep your high points in your board, so that when you hit, Black will have to enter on low points and then must jump over your partial prime.

Moving off your 5 point makes no sense here. If Black had a stripped position and a lack of timing, then this move might make sense, but here Black can keep their anchor on their 18 point for many rolls.

Walter Trice once said, “if you are unsure what to do, then simply pick up your rear most checker and move it forward”. Because of this you consider 16/10:

It is amazing how often Walter Trice’s statement is correct, but this is not one of those times.

Even if Black misses you on the first roll, you are likely able to tidy up both blots this roll, so Black will probably have additional shots on at one of your blots.

Black has a blot on their 4 point. They can cover it with any 4, 2 or 1. By playing 16/10, you also give them good 3s to hit 18/15*. You have diversified their good rolls – meaning you have given them more good rolls.    

Rather than diversifying their rolls, you want to duplicate their rolls so that the numbers that hit are the same numbers that cover the blot on the 4 point. Consider 13/11 13/9:

Black will hit from the 18 point with any 4 or 2, but those numbers are already good as they cover the blot on Black’s 4 point.

If you are not hit, it should be easy to get your 2 blots into the safety of your home board.

This is the correct move.