Position 428

 How should White play 32 here: 

You really wanted to roll a 2, and the good news is that you did. But that is only half of the roll, now you need to play the 3.

You would like to improve your board, so you consider bar/23 8/5:

This unstacks your heavy 8 point, slotting a point that you would really like to make. Black already hits you with any 5, 3 and now any 2. To be fair you were already going to be hit with 32, 21 and 22, so you have only added 6 more hitting 2s. 6 rolls is 17% of the time.

You consider a play which minimises your additional hits, bar/23 11/8:

You have only given Black one more hitting roll, a 62. But you have done nothing about taking the initiative away from Black, and Black will continue attacking, hitting loose if necessary.

Another way to think about this, is to ask the question when looking at different candidate moves, “what am I hoping my opponent will roll here?” After this move, I have no idea what I am hoping for Black to roll next turn.

Consider bar/23 6/3*:

Now I have four numbers that I am hoping Black will roll – 66, 44 or 64. Also, Black hits on their 2 point, with any 5 or any 3 which are numbers they need to enter. So, you have duplicated their entering and hitting numbers. I know that they enter and hit with any 3 but look how 65 and 54 play for Black. This is the correct move.

It is important to realise that you are not winning whatever you do after this roll, but you must squeeze as much equity out of it as you can.