Position 432

 How should White play 51 here:

In Backgammon you find yourself faced with many choices, but only one of them will make you the favourite.

First you consider the distraction play of 21/16 9/8:

This move has advantages. It reduces you to only having 3 blots and distracts Black from making new inner board points. If Black rolls a 1, do they make the point or hit your checker on their 9 point? This type of move is a distraction play.

If Black does not hit you, whether by choice or rolling a missing number, you may be able to escape a checker. But Black could hit you with any 1, 2, 4 or 6 – which is 32 rolls or 89% of the time.

Another play you consider is 13/8 9/8:

This leaves your checker on your 21 point, in the hope that you may be able to make your 21 point anchor or be able to escape that checker in the future.

This does duplicate 4s for Black to hit you on both their 4 and 2 points. Duplication is good, but this move is about simply surviving, rather than ending up in an improved position.

Backgammon is about balancing risk and reward. Consider 13/8 6/5:

This move turns the duplication of 4s into triplication!

It unstacks your heavy 6 point, starts a point you would really like to make, with at least 4 builders aimed at covering the blot on your 5 point.

This goes against Paul Magriel’s advice to never slot when your back checkers are split. There are exceptions to that rule, and they usually involve when you have significant duplication of your opponent’s hitting numbers. You have that duplication here, so this is the correct move.

It is worth noting that you do have the stronger board. It is worth remembering that when you have made your 4 point, making your 5 point goes up in value.