Position 433

How should White play 43 here:

You had many good rolls here, particularly any 5 or any number that added up to 5. But that was not what you rolled.

You consider the aggressive play of 8/1*:

This would be a great play, if you could guarantee that Black would roll one of the 16 rolls that stay on the bar. Unfortunately, Black will hit you with any 1 as well as 62 and 22. That is 14 rolls or 39% of the time.

When I evaluate the strength of the position, I look at who has the stronger board, stronger prime or more advanced anchor. Here the board strengths are equal, and both boards are very strong. Being hit could be bad. You may not be able to cover the blot on your 1 point next roll, particularly as you have duplicated your own 5s to safety your blot on your 18 point.

Consider just running that blot 18/11:

Now you will be hit with any 2 as well as 64, 61 and 11 – which is 16 rolls or 44% of the time. This is too high a risk.

You consider the prepare to attack next roll move of 8/4 6/3:

This reduces your number of blots to only one and gives you many rolls that will make your 1 point, putting Black on the bar next roll. Unfortunately, before you get your next roll, Black gets to roll. Black will hit you with any 6 as well as 54 – which is 19 rolls or 53% of the time.

Whichever move you choose, you will be leaving hitting rolls for Black.

Consider 6/2 5/2:

This leaves the same 19 rolls as 8/4 6/3, but if you get into a blot hitting contest you will have the better board.

Phil Simborg has a saying “make the move your opponent least wants to see you make” This is that move and it puts Black under the most pressure.