Position 434

 How should White play 44 here:

It looks good to cover the blot on your 1 point, and there are many ways to do this.

The first move you look at is 13/1 13/9:

After this move, if Black anchors on either your 3 or 5 point, you will be playing a prime versus prime game. You will be at a disadvantage as you have already made your 1 point, therefore you will have fewer checkers to build a prime in front of Black’s anchor on your 3 point.

You have also done nothing about escaping your rear most checker.

Consider escaping your rear most checker now with 9/1 24/16:

Black will still have the same number of anchoring rolls, as well as hitting you from the bar with 54, 43, 42 and 22 – 7 rolls or 19% of the time.

You will still have to get the checker on your 16 point to safety next roll, which you may or may not be able to do.

You could put another Black checker on the bar by playing 9/1 11/3*:

Now you will be hit by any 3 and 21 which is 11 rolls from the bar. 55 is also a great roll for Black. And you have gone back to doing nothing about escaping your rear most checker on your 24 point.

This would be a great move if you knew that Black was going to miss you. Unfortunately, they could hit you. This was the move that I made over the board, and it was the wrong one. I liked putting two of Black’s checkers on the bar and stopped looking for a better move.

Consider 13/5 9/5 20/4:

This move leaves the greatest number of shots for Black from the bar. Black will hit you with any 1 as well as make the 5 point while hitting with 33 and 22. They will also hit loose with 32. That gives Black a total of 15 hitting rolls.

If Black hits you loose with 32, at least you will have a return shot from the bar.

The advantage of this move is that you create a 3 point board, which has priming and blitzing potential. If you are missed, you will have 5s to cover the blot on your one point.

You have advanced your rear most checker, so you will find it far easier to escape next roll.

Sometimes the correct move leaves the greatest number of shots for your opponent, so you cannot merely reduce the number of opponent’s rolls that hit you and think that you have found the right move.

This is the correct move.