Position 435

 How should White play 44 here:

After the roll you will be ahead in the race by 16 pips, so you consider the safe play of 10/6 13/9(3):

The good news is that this move is safe for Black’s next roll.

The bad news is, Black’s board is still stronger than yours, you have lost control of the outfield by giving up your 13 point and you are still stacked on your 6 point.

You will need your 13 point to make it easier for you to escape your rear most checkers. Without it they will not reach safety until they get to your 9 point.

You consider 8/4(3) 10/6:

You have kept your 13 point with a spare checker on it, and now your board strength is equal to Black’s. The one downside is that your 6 point is still stacked.

Both this move and the previous one have left no shots. While that would seem to be good, it can be worth leaving a shot to gain a significant advantage. Consider 8/4(2) 6/2(2):

You have retained your 13 point; your board is now stronger than Black’s and you have unstacked your 6 point. The fact that your board is stronger than Black’s, means that they must proceed a bit more cautiously.

Is it worth leaving any 5 as well as 41, 43 and 61 to get that stronger board? You will be leaving 17 good rolls for Black in addition to 66 and 33 which ware already great rolls for Black. Note that 61 already made Black’s 7 point, so really, we are only giving them an additional 15 good rolls.

The answer seems to be yes; it is worth it. If missed, you will have 5s or 2s and combinations of those numbers to make your 8 point. You will also have rolls to make your 7 point.

This move is risky, but it wins the most games and the most Gammons.