Position 440

 How should White play 65 here:

The first move you consider is the completely safe 13/2:

This may be completely safe for this roll, but creating 2 inner board blots gives Black a lot of freedom to clear their 15 point, leaving a blot if necessary.

I always like to ask myself the question “how do I intend to win this game?.” This move lets you come second in a two-person game.

To win this game, you will need to hit Black’s blot as you are so far behind in the race. Therefore, you need to maximise contact. Your board is as strong as Black’s, so you consider 23/18 13/7:

If Black hits you loose by playing 13/7* as part of their roll, then you will hit them from the bar with 61, 52 and 51. That is 6 rolls or 17% of the time.

This is a good move, but to quote Phil Simborg “good is the enemy of great” You can make a better play here, consider 23/17 13/8:

If Black hits you loose by playing 13/8*, then you can hit them from the bar with 65, 62, 61 and 53. That is 8 rolls or 22% of the time. This means that you hit with 2 more rolls or 5.6% more of the time then you do with 23/18 13/7.

This difference may seem small, but if you consistently make moves that are 5.6% better than the alternatives, you will win a lot more games and matches.