Position 447

 How should White play 65 here:

Whatever you do, you must leave at least one blot. You first consider the non-hitting play of 16/10 13/8:

When you count shots, you see that Black will hit you with any 5 as well as 41, 32, 62, 63 and 33. That is 20 rolls or 56% of the time. If you are missed by Black, then you will have to tidy up your blot, but you may not be able to.

You now start to consider the moves that hit one of Black’s blots. Consider 16/10 6/1*:

You will be hit with any 1 as well as 55, 54, 53, 52 and 64. This is also 20 rolls or 56% of the time, but now you will have 2 blots to tidy up next roll.

Consider 13/2*:

You will be hit with any 2 as well as 51, 41, 31, 21 and 11. Again this is 20 rolls or 56% of the time.

Even if you are missed, you may not be able to cover the blot on your 2 point.

So far you have discovered that whatever you do, you are going to leave 20 shots and you will have difficulty making your blot or blots safe.

Consider 8/2* 6/1*:

Again, you leave 20 rolls that hit from the bar, but now if you are missed, you do not need to immediately tidy up your blots on your 2 and 1 points. Black will not be threatening them. This makes this move the safest overall, which wins the most games.