Position 448

 How should White play 52 here:

It is easy to play safe without leaving a shot and take two checkers off with 5/off 2/off:

This allows Black to anchor and cause you problems in the future. Also, if you roll either 65 or 54 next roll, you will leave a direct shot.

Just looking at the resulting position, you only have spares on your 3 point and all your other points are stripped. This should look ugly and dangerous to you.

Because Black only has a 3 point board and a blot on their outfield, you can make a more aggressive play. Consider 5/off 3/1*:

This stops Black from anchoring and now 65 and 54 are great next rolls for you, if Black does not hit you from the bar. Black will hit you with 11 rolls, and you still leave Black shots from the bar if you roll 66. This is the roll that wins the most Gammons, but it does not win the most games.

You do not mind leaving 11 rolls for Black from the bar, but you would like to be completely safe if Black misses you. Consider 6/1* 3/1:

This wins slightly less Gammons than 5/off 3/1*, but it wins the most games. If Black does not hit you with a 6, then you can play every one of your next rolls safely. This is what Michy calls a “zero position”. A zero position is one where zero rolls leave a shot next roll. If you are missed, then all you need to do is clear your points from the rear, letting Black enter and be of no further danger to you.