Position 452

 How should White play 31 here:

It is good to reduce your blot count here, so the correct move must contain 7/6 as you really do not want or need to make your 7 point.

You can reduce your blot count to only having one blot by playing 7/6 17/14:

But when you look at the position you know that if your next roll is 22 then you must give up one of your inner board points.

Next you consider 7/6 18/15:

The trouble with this play is that it would be nice to have more return shots from the bar, and you have moved one of your checkers from Black’s 7 point. By leaving a checker there, you will get more shots from the bar if it is hit.

Consider 7/6 14/11:

Now if Black hits you with 64 or 65 then you will have more return shots from the bar.

This position shows the importance of looking at the resulting position. I know I need to do this more.