Position 455

How should White play 54 here:

It is often said that backgammon is a game of balancing risk and reward. You could make the safe play here of 6/1 4/1:

The idea behind this play is that you hope to attack next time when you roll better dice. But notice that you have used 2 of your builders to make your 1 point. Now you only have 2 builders to attack with.

You are only ahead in the race by 11 pips and if Black rolls any 5 but 51, then they will have completely escaped and control the outfield. If you look at what is likely to happen, Black will either escape or you will be forced to hit loose. You could also roll a perfect number and make your 3 point, but then with your 4 point open, Black will always be threatening to enter and escape.

You need to attack now while you still have plenty of builders, so play 7/3* 9/4:

Black will hit you with any 4, any 3 and 21. That is 22 numbers but on 14 numbers or 39% of the time Black will stay on the bar and you will have 4 builders for your 2 slotted points. Every single number will cover at least 1 blot.

Making this sort of move over the board takes courage, but here the risk is worth taking.