Position 458

 How should White play 61 here:

One of the re-occurring dilemmas in backgammon is whether to hit or not.

Consider this position if you hit 21/15*/14:

Black will hit you from the bar with 44, 33, 22, 11, 43, 42, 41, 32 and 21. That is 14 rolls or 39% of the time.

On 32 rolls Black will enter from the bar, which is 89% of the time. Note that when Black is on roll, they will still be ahead in the race by 11 pips before they roll. So, the hit does not look like it is going to do that much damage, and a tempo hit is not required as Black is not threatening to do something devastating.

Consider 8/2 5/4:

To win we will have to roll large numbers and win the race or you will have to hit a Black checker as they come around the board, trying to get home. For the hit to succeed, you are going to need a much stronger board, so the best thing you can do here is start to build that board by slotting your 4 and 2 points.