Position 459

 How should White play 43 here:

When you are under attack, it seems natural to make an advanced anchor. You quickly consider bar/21 24/21:

Although this gives you an advanced anchor, he gives Black many rolls to hit you or create a prime in front of your anchor or do both at the same time. This move just surrenders the initiative when you should be taking the initiative.

You want to hit, but do you hit bar/22 8/4* or bar/22 11/7*? Consider bar/22 8/4*:

To accurately compare the two hitting plays, I usually count a roll that double hits as 2 hits instead of one. Double hits leave your opponent fewer return shots if you leave a blot in your inner board, and only doubles if you leave the blot outside your board.

As the doubles for both alternatives hit and double hit the same number of times we will exclude them from the main analysis. 44 and 22 single hit while 33 double hits with both alternatives.

Here Black hits from the bar with 64, 63, 62, 61, 54, 43, 41, 32, 31 and 21. Of those numbers, 64, 54, 43 and 41 double hit, which is 4 numbers that I count is 8. There are 6 single hits so that equals the total of 14 numbers.

This does look tempting as it unstacks your 8 point.

Consider bar/22 11/7*:

Now Black will hit you from the bar with 64, 63, 62, 61, 54, 53, 52, 51, 43, 41, 32, 31 and 21 or with 13 numbers. None of those numbers double hit. Comparing non-double numbers, there is one fewer numbers that hit than bar/22 8/4*. One number is equal to 2 rolls or 5.6% of the time.

This has the benefit of bringing another checker into what I call the active attack zone. Both of your checkers back on your 11 point only bear directly onto your 5 point which is already made. By moving a checker to your 7 point, now that checker bears on all the points in your home board that are unmade. This is the correct play.