Position 476

 How should White play 54 here:

The first move you consider is 8/3* 7/3:

This puts Black on the bar and makes a new inner board point. That sounds good but you quickly realise that Black will hit you back with 61, 41, 31, 52, 42, 43 and 44 which is 13 rolls or 36% of the time. The eight other 4s put Black in a great position as well. That is 21 rolls or 58% of the time. That is too many good rolls.

Next, you consider 21/16 6/2:

There are two issues with this move. Firstly, playing 6/2 puts a checker too deep. Secondly, you give Black the momentum and many good rolls. Any 1 lets Black anchor on your 4 point, and many rolls allow Black to jump into your outfield. Black will not fear a blot hitting contest when you have a blot on your 2 point.

Consider 21/12:

Black will hit your checker on your 12 point with 62, 53 and 63 – six rolls or 17% of the time.

If you are going to be hit with six rolls, you are better to fight for a point that you really want to make.

Consider the correct move of 13/4*:

Now you will be hit with 16 rolls – any 4 as well as 31, 22 and 11. That is 44% of the time. But to balance that, Black will stay on the bar with 66, 55 and 65 – four rolls or 11% of the time. When Black misses, you will either continue to attack, make your 4 point, or attack while also making your 4 point.

You would rather not be hit, but if you are, since you were already behind in the race, being hit is not that bad.

This follows my philosophy “when in doubt, play to win.”

 

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