Position 372

 How should White play 31 here:

You have two choices here. The first one is to step to the edge of the prime with 23/22 11/8:

You are way ahead in the race, and would like to escape your last checker and just come home safely. Stepping to the edge of Black’s prime, seems to give you a simple way to win the game – rolling 6 and bring that checker home. The problem with this play is that it diversifies Black’s numbers so that 6’s escape, while 5’s and 4’s hit you off the edge of the prime.

If you do not roll a 6 immediately, you have some awkward numbers like 54, and you will be forced to play deep into your board. Then if Black rolls a 6, even if they have do not hit you, they will have control of the outfield.

Contrast this to 6/3 4/3:

Now you are playing a priming versus prime game.

Black will need to roll three 6’s to escape all their checkers. You will need to roll a 1 and then a 6. So, you only need two numbers.

You will have more timing here, meaning if you have to move all your spares to your 2 point, it will take 18 pips of timing. If Black moves the 2 spares on their 7 and 8 points to their 1 point, it will only take 13 pips before they have to start breaking their 5 prime.

This means that you will have an advantage in a prime versus prime game. This does not mean that you are the favourite in the game, just that this is the best move of the ones available.

Black will have to be a little bit cautious about hitting you loose as you now have a very powerful 5 point board. And should be able to keep that board for at least another roll.