382

 How should White play 64 here:

Your biggest asset here is your 4 point board. You would like to get into a blot hitting contest with Black, and you would really like them to hit from your 2 point, as they would be giving up their anchor.

You could play 24/18 8/4:

This does provoke a blot hitting contest, but by playing 8/4, you have removed the incentive for Black to leave their 23 point. As this is what we would like them to do most, this cannot be the correct play.

Consider 24/20 13/7:

The problem with this play, is that Black could hit you and make their 5 point. You want to make it difficult for your opponent to hit you and make an inner board point, as this strengthens their position too much.

It is worth noting that this move both wins the most Gammons and loses the most Gammons.

Consider 24/14:

This play takes the pressure off Black, as they could now roll a number that lets them make an inner board point without leaving any direct shots. If Black were to roll 31 here, they would simply make their 5 point. But if White had split 24/18 as part of their roll, then if Black rolled 31, if they make their 5 point, they would have a direct shot at the blot on their 10 point.

Consider 24/18 13/9:

This move leaves 4 blots, but Blacks 6’s are duplicated.

Unless Black rolls 66, most of their hitting rolls will be very dangerous for them. And you would be hoping that my opponent rolled a hitting number here that persuaded them to hit from their 23 point.

What is interesting is that the only roll for Black that makes them a favourite is 66. Even when Black hits, with any other roll, they are the underdog.

This is the correct move.



To see how badly off Black is after this move, let’s look at how Black plays their non double 6’s.

With 61, Black should hit twice with 23/17*/16* removing any spares that could attack Black’s rearmost checker. Black wins 44% of the time.

With 62, Black should make the 4 point 10/4 6/4. Black wins 32% of the time. Do not get into an exchange of hits when your opponent has 3 or more inner board points than you.

With 63, Black should hit twice with 23/17* 10/7*. Black wins 43% of the time.

With 64, Black should make the 4 point 10/4 8/4. Black wins 31% of the time.

With 65, Black should hit twice with 13/7* 6/1*, keeping the 23 point anchor. Black wins 35% of the time.

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