Position 381

 How should White play 64 here:

With the security of your 5 prime, you could hit 11/1*:

But you do not want to be hit from the bar by Black. If Black just enters on your 2 point, they will be in a good position because they can escape with a 6, so you will be forced to attack, and they do have a 5 point board.

You could play safe with 11/5 8/4:

If you roll 52, 51 or 21, your position next turn will be very awkward.

The other problem is that you have given up your outfield presence. If Black does escape into the outfield, you will have no checkers in the outfield to attack their escaping checker.

Making a 6 prime should win the game for you, so you consider 8/2 11/7:

If Black does not hit you, and you cover the blot on your 2 point, creating a 6 prime, then the game should be won.

Unfortunately, on 11 rolls, Black will roll that 1. You will then be on the bar, with Black at the edge of your prime and able to escape with any 6.

Consider 21/15 21/17:

Now if Black hits you with a 1, they will not be at the edge of your prime unless they roll 11.

You will have a strong outfield presence, and if not hit you can create a 6 prime with any 3 as well as 61, 52 or 54. That is 19 rolls or 53% of the time.

The fact that this duplicates Black’s 1’s to hit you and get to the edge of the prime, helps make this the correct move.





Comments

  1. Kendine DiyetisyenJanuary 6, 2025 at 3:22 PM

    I would instinctively play 7/1 and 5/1, the black has around 30% chance of entering and 5% chance of taking my single checker at 7.
    That’s risky but we don’t know the next dice. We can play for the safest probability but this might not be the universally correct answer.

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