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Current Position - what should White play here?

Position 433

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How should White play 43 here: You had many good rolls here, particularly any 5 or any number that added up to 5. But that was not what you rolled. You consider the aggressive play of 8/1*: This would be a great play, if you could guarantee that Black would roll one of the 16 rolls that stay on the bar. Unfortunately, Black will hit you with any 1 as well as 62 and 22. That is 14 rolls or 39% of the time. When I evaluate the strength of the position, I look at who has the stronger board, stronger prime or more advanced anchor. Here the board strengths are equal, and both boards are very strong. Being hit could be bad. You may not be able to cover the blot on your 1 point next roll, particularly as you have duplicated your own 5s to safety your blot on your 18 point. Consider just running that blot 18/11: Now you will be hit with any 2 as well as 64, 61 and 11 – which is 16 rolls or 44% of the time. This is too high a risk. You consider the prepare to attack next roll move of 8/4 6/3: T...

Position 432

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 How should White play 51 here: In Backgammon you find yourself faced with many choices, but only one of them will make you the favourite. First you consider the distraction play of 21/16 9/8: This move has advantages. It reduces you to only having 3 blots and distracts Black from making new inner board points. If Black rolls a 1, do they make the point or hit your checker on their 9 point? This type of move is a distraction play. If Black does not hit you, whether by choice or rolling a missing number, you may be able to escape a checker. But Black could hit you with any 1, 2, 4 or 6 – which is 32 rolls or 89% of the time. Another play you consider is 13/8 9/8: This leaves your checker on your 21 point, in the hope that you may be able to make your 21 point anchor or be able to escape that checker in the future. This does duplicate 4s for Black to hit you on both their 4 and 2 points. Duplication is good, but this move is about simply surviving, rather than ending up in an...

Position 431

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 How should White play 31 here: The 3 must be played bar/22*, then you must decide on how to play the 1. The best play that leaves the blot on your 8 point is 6/5: It is said that you should make the big play when your opponent is on the bar. While this can be true, you still must consider the number of shots Black has from the bar. Here Black will hit you from the bar with 62, 54, 53, 52, 51 and 44. That is 11 rolls or 31% of the time. While the blot on your 8 point gives you a lot more attacking potential if you are missed, the probability of being hit is just too high. Consider the correct bar/22* 8/7: You are stacked on your 6 point, but you are not committed to having to tidy up any blots on your side of the board, so you can concentrate on your highest priority – escaping your back checkers before Black improves their prime. Many times, in backgammon you will have conflicting priorities, sometimes like here just identifying that your highest priority is to get your back check...

Position 430

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 How should White play 61 here: “If in doubt, make the 5 point” is a saying that has been proved correct many times. So here the first move that you should consider is 11/5 6/5: Although the 3 point board looks very strong, this position looks stiff and inflexible. You only have 2 builders for your 7 point. Your 13 and 8 point looks stacked compared to your flat 6, 5 and 4 points. All your spares are on two points. This position just looks ugly. Compare this to the correct move of 13/7 8/7: Now you have 3 builders to make your 5 point and give you a 5 prime. You have spare checkers on your 13, 11, 8 and 6 points. This position is very flexible, and you will have no trouble making additional points. This position looks pleasing to the eye. I believe that the most important reason that making the 7 point is correct, is that after making the 5 point you have used your last spare on your 6 point. If we move a checker from the 8 point to the 6 point, this means that after you ...

Position 429

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 How should White play 64 here: Anchors are great, they protect you from being primed or blitzed. But at some point, you must leave an anchor – are we there yet? Consider running with both checkers from your 20 point anchor with 20/14 20/16: This would be good if you are missed, but you will be hit with any 1, 2 or 4. But if you are hit, unless you are hit with doubles, Black will not be making a new inner board point. Unfortunately, as you will be hit by 27 rolls, this move is just too big. Consider 20/10: Now at least one of your checkers will be hit in the outfield with 64, 63 or 54. You will be pointed on with 53, 51, 31, 44, 33 and 11. Any number that does not point on you or hit you in the outfield, that contains a 5, 3 or 1 will be used to hit loose on Blacks 5 point. That is a lot of numbers, and like 20/10, you lose the security of having the 20 point anchor. So maybe now is not the time to give up your anchor. Consider 13/3: Slotting into a double shot is rare, bu...

Position 428

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 How should White play 32 here:  You really wanted to roll a 2, and the good news is that you did. But that is only half of the roll, now you need to play the 3. You would like to improve your board, so you consider bar/23 8/5: This unstacks your heavy 8 point, slotting a point that you would really like to make. Black already hits you with any 5, 3 and now any 2. To be fair you were already going to be hit with 32, 21 and 22, so you have only added 6 more hitting 2s. 6 rolls is 17% of the time. You consider a play which minimises your additional hits, bar/23 11/8: You have only given Black one more hitting roll, a 62. But you have done nothing about taking the initiative away from Black, and Black will continue attacking, hitting loose if necessary. Another way to think about this, is to ask the question when looking at different candidate moves, “what am I hoping my opponent will roll here?” After this move, I have no idea what I am hoping for Black to roll next turn. ...

Position 427

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 How should White play 53 here: If you want to leave no blots, you could play 13/10 13/8: The issue with this play is that you have given up your outfield presence, making it so much harder for you to run your back checkers to safety. The 13 point is a good point to put fleeing checkers on. Losing control of the outfield will cause long-term problems. You would like to get an advanced anchor, so you consider that hit and split play of 24/21 6/1*: This does duplicate 1s to hit in two different places, but you will be hit somewhere with any 1 as well as 64, 44, 33 and 22. That is a total of 16 rolls or 44% of the time. That number is too high. Consider 8/3 6/3: This move retains your 13 point, so that in the future you will have a landing spot for your escaping back checkers. It gives you a much stronger board than Black, and if Black does not hit you, then you will have 4 builders for your 4 point and three builders for your 7 point. If Black does hit you, then you will have n...