Position 378
How should White play 61 here:
You are really glad that you rolled a hitting number here.
First you consider hitting 14/8* and lifting 4/3:
This looks safer, but is it? In his excellent book “Modern
Backgammon” by Bill Robertie, Bill gives the advice that you actually need to
count the shots rather than just assuming one move is safer than the other.
Here Black will hit you from the bar with 62, 61, 53, 51, 44 and
41 – 11 rolls or 31% of the time.
You will have one black checker on the bar.
Consider 14/8* 14/13*:
Black will also hit you with 11 rolls here, but they will have two
checkers on the bar, with you having a 3 point board with a fourth point
slotted and a direct cover.
If Black misses you, you will find it much easier to get both
checkers home with black having two checkers having to come in from the bar.
You will also win more games and more Gammons after this move.
You should be more inclined to make the big play when your opponent owns the cube. You cannot win by doubling your opponent out, so you need to finish your opponent off as quickly as possible.
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